BR Newsletter

For the last 14 years I have assisted many new entrepreneurs and small businesses with their market research. One of the most utilized market resources is the Census.  The advantage of the Census is that it allows a small business to assess its local market with reliable data at a reasonable cost.  Much of the data is available free of charge.   This essential information helps to ensure your business is being launched or expanded on more than just a hunch.

For those with privacy concerns it should be noted that this data is only numerical in nature.  Individual names and addresses are not accessible from the Census.  It is not a mailing list.

The proposed removal of the long form from the Census is a foolish one.  The long form data is essential for not only new entrepreneurs but for businesses of all sizes,  as well social groups, community organizations, municipal, provincial and federal governments and yes even the political parties who use local Census data to strategize for their re-election campaigns!

Industry Minister Tony Clement is naive to think that the new survey will garner more responses because it is distributed to more households.  The Survey of Household Spending (SHS), a detailed voluntary consumer expenditure survey from Statistics Canada garnered an average national response rate of 63%.  This rate applied to the new voluntary survey proposed to replace the long form would produce fewer responses than the actual Census.

What makes the voluntary survey especially troubling is the inevitable regional variation in response rates.   At a provincial level the SHS response rate ranged from 57.2% in Alberta to 71.3% in Newfoundland & Labrador.   This type of variation will be even more dramatic from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.   A voluntary survey will not provide the same quality of data at a local level.   Information at a DA level will not be possible.   Future business decisions, social and government policies will be based on insufficient data.   One of the greatest benefits of the Census is the insight it provides at a neighbourhood level.  This will be lost for no apparent reason other than a cabinet whim.

Industry Minister Tony Clement comments that fears are “overwrought”.  Perhaps it is his  government that is “overwrought” with concern about potential Census protests and so feel the system that has been in place for 35 years should be changed without thought or public consultation.   When I worked at Statistics Canada during the 1996 Census there were numerous people who came into the Toronto office concerned about filling out the Census.  Some were extremely angry.   Yet once it was explained why the Census was taken and what the information was for, they filled out their forms without further distress.  I did not threaten people will jail time or place them under duress, I simply explained the rationale behind the questionnaire.

The payback from detailed Census data collected once every five years from one in five households is enormous.  All Canadians benefit.  The removal of the long form is a very short-sighted and foolish policy decision.

Statistics Canada recently released an interesting report titled Self-employment in the downturn. It includes a number of data tables which allow you to examine the state of self-employment both pre- and post-recession. If your business assists new entrepreneurs like ours does, this report is a must read. It provides valuable insight into the changing face of self-employment in Canada.

As with previous downturns, self-employment increased as the economy faltered. Between October 2008 and October 2009 self-employment rose by 3.9% or by more than 115,000 individuals. This is significantly higher than the average annual growth over the previous decade which is around 22,800 (0.9%) .

While it is easy to jump to the conclusion that the increase is due entirely to the unemployed starting their own businesses, the data does not support this. First of all the demographic profile of Canadians who were laid-off differs from the major growth areas of self-employment. Younger men bore the brunt the economic downturn while the current self-employment surge is lead by women and older workers.

Secondly, individuals usually start businesses in industries where they have some experience. With the exception of the mining, quarrying, oil & gas, construction sector which was a significant contributor to both unemployment and new self-employment, the industry profile of those who were laid off in the downturn does not closely match the industries which saw the highest rates of new self-employment. New self-employment refers to business that started between April 2009 and October 2009. The greatest increases came in the professional, scientific and technical sector and the other services sector while the most lay-offs were in the manufacturing and wholesale trade sectors.

Finally, increases in unemployed have historically never translated into a direct surge in self-employment. The transition rate of unemployed to self-employed is typically only 5.0%. The final numbers for the transition rate in the current downturn will not be available for a few more months yet even the highest scenario would only translate into a 12% transition rate. At this level laid-off workers would account for just over a third of the newly self-employed.

The report concludes that recent unemployment in not the primary driver of the current self-employment surge rather other factors such as access to credit, potential earnings, and flexible working hours are of greater influence.

A word of advice when reading this report: make sure you have no distractions. My first attempt was at my daughter’s figure skating practice but I soon found the Glee soundtrack make it difficult to follow the precise language. Some sections talk about self-employment in October 2009 while others discuss the newly self-employed – those who started business between April 2009 and October 2009. If you do not pay attention to this you will find the discussion very confusing!

For other stats on self-employment and on the recession see our Stats Link Canada subject headings: Self-employment, Financial Crisis 2008.  (FREE TRIAL versions – Self-employment, Financial Crisis 2008)

After a three year hiatus and many business and personal challenges the BR Newsletter is back!  Well sort of.  As you can tell this is not really a newsletter anymore but rather a Blog.  After consultations and numerous trials and tests this format seemed the most accessible.

I briefly considered twitter but decided I was too long winded for that format.

While the cosmetics are different, the content will have the same focus as the original e-mail newsletter: helping new entrepreneurs and small businesses access free and low cost Canadian data.

By the way you can still access the original archived editions of the BR Newsletter online

One of the more popular aspects of the original BR Newsletter will also return:Small Business Stats Packs.  These one page summaries of recently released small business data help you to quickly access the latest Canadian SME research.  The packs be will made available online and in a downloadable pdf format.  I will announce when new stats pack are added.  You can also find them linked at the bottom of the right-hand column.

For those new to GDSourcing / Stats Link Canada, my name is John White.  After working for a number of years at Statistics Canada, I started my own online business in 1997.  Over the last 13 years while the there have been various cosmetic and strategic changes, I have remained focused on the one goal of helping entrepreneurs access market and industry data that is within their budget.  And believe me I am well aware that for some that budget is $0.00!

My original site  (GDSourcing.com) is a directory of web sites which contain free Canadian data.  Each entry has its own site summary.

We have also added a Google Custom Search engine which allows you to directly keyword search the full sites we have summarized.

My second site is Stats Link Canada which is a much more robust research tool.  It includes detailed research guides on the major market and industry sources available.   It also hosts this blog!

The heart of the site is our Stats Link Canada Source Lists.  There are now more than 19,000  references to the latest polls, surveys and reports.   Both government and non-government sources are tracked.  Use our detailed subject index or keyword search your sector for the data you require.   There is a free trial so you can assess the usefulness of this research tool for your own purposes.  Full access is only $6.

I guess that is it for introductions.

I hope you find this Blog informative.